Canção de Natal Fria: Ventos Recessivos para a Economia dos Estados Unidos

Avery Shenfeld pertence ao Banco Canadiano CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce).

American Pie
by Avery Shenfeld, Senior Economist


A long, long time ago…
I can still remember, how the data used to make us smile
And I knew that if they had the chance
That stores could make the shoppers dance
And, maybe, they’d be happy for a while.


But housing prices made them shiver
With no more tax cuts to deliver
Bad news on the wealth front
It couldn’t be much more blunt


I can’t remember if I tried
To have my VISA charred and fried
But something hit me deep inside
The day, the house boom died.


So buy, buy, the consumer won’t buy
Leaving Chevys at the levee
And Ford sales running dry
And Wall Street boys were drinking Perrier and rye
Singing this will be the day that I die
This will be the day that I die.


Now for tens of years we were under Al
As Greenspan ruled like the market’s pal
And that’s just how it used to be
When the Fed rates eased we could live like kings
With debts borrowed under sub-prime schemes
With no fear that came from you and me


But as big Al was looking down
Ben Bernanke stole his storied crown
The Fed meet was adjourned
No rate cuts were returned
And when shoppers left with an empty cart
The job gains fell off of the chart
And the dollar sank into the dark
The day, the house boom died


We were singing
Buy, buy the consumer won’t buy
Leaving Chevys at the levee
And Ford sales running dry
And Wall Street boys were drinking Perrier and rye
Singing this will be the day that I die
This will be the day that I die.


Helter, skelter in the summer swelter
The bond market rallied like a market shelter
Long yields low and falling fast
So come on Ben Bernanke, Ben be quick
Get off of that inflation shtick
‘Cause rate cuts are the market’s only friend


But as we watched him on the stage
Our debt loads running off the page
No rate cut but a bunch
Could break that credit crunch
And as the pains climbed into the night
We sacrificed our consumer right
I saw bond bulls laughing with delight
The day, the house boom died.

They were singing
Buy, buy the consumer won’t buy, etc


A real estate salesman sang the blues
And asked me for some happy news
But housing buyers turned away.
And the three men I admire most
Soros, Gates, and the Wal-Mart host
They dumped their houses on the coast
The day, the house boom died.


They were singing buy, buy… etc.